WELCOME TO THE RUNOFF

This story was first published for subscribers to LaPolitics Weekly on Oct. 19, 2017. Wish you would have read it then? Subscribe now!

Secretary of State Tom Schedler’s team conducted a quick review of three and a half decades worth of statewide elections and still couldn’t find a turnout lower than what voters produced this past weekend. (That would be a turnout of 13.6 percent, or 405,682 voters, based on the first constitutional amendment.)

So if you’re looking for a basis of comparison for the Nov. 18 runoff, you’re out of luck. The closest thing we may have is the Oct. 16, 1993, ballot that included six constitutional amendments and a handful of multi-parish races. It produced roughly 408,000 votes statewide. But there was no marquee runoff, such as a contest for treasurer, or high-profile municipal slates, like what we’re seeing in New Orleans.

Election officials are currently expecting turnout in the runoff to match that of the primary, although the odds increase with each passing day that it’ll dip below that threshold. While the primary saw tiny election battles playing out across the state, the race for treasurer will be the only item on the ballot in 56 parishes next month.

Here are the exceptions:

— Oakdale city marshal (Allen Parish)

— Caddo Parish commissioner

— City court judge (East Baton Rouge Parish)

— Denham Springs councilman (Livingston Parish)

— Mayor, civil judge and two council races (Orleans Parish)

— Washington town councilman (St. Landry Parish)

— Franklin city marshal (St. Mary Parish)

— House District 77 runoff (St. Tammany)

The higher-than-average turnouts that will likely come about in Orleans and St. Tammany will benefit attorney Derrick Edwards and former Rep. John Schroder, respectively. Not that there’s much more analysis needed. Most political professionals give the edge to Schroder — and they seriously doubt Edwards is on his way to becoming Louisiana’s second statewide elected Democrat.

If that’s the case — if low turnout doesn’t create any surprise scenarios on the statewide scene — then the real storyline may become Schroder’s fundraising. He already has the Republican infrastructure standing firmly behind him. Will he be able to use that leverage to raise an impressive amount of money against an opponent who’s unlikely to gain traction?

Schroder certainly has to make it through the runoff before he can declare a total victory. But when or if he does, he’ll also find himself two years behind other statewide elected officials in terms of fundraising. After all, once this cycle concludes on Nov. 18, only one date will matter: Oct. 12, 2019.

LOWDOWN: The Price of Politics & Politicians

   What would you do for $16,800? Would you take a stressful, full-time job for $16,800 annually? Probably not. But guess who would? If you

SPONSORED: Louisiana Primary Care Association Announces Positive Step Forward In Healthcare

The Picard Group client Louisiana Primary Care Association (LPCA) recently announced an impressive step forward for healthcare in Louisiana.

POD: Politics According to Alton

He’s a staple of Capitol life and an influencer in Louisiana politics. He's lobbyist Alton Ashy of Advanced Strategies, and he's our guest

LOWDOWN: How A Podcast Gets Made

Here at LaPolitics, we like to use our videos and podcasts to teach you something you don’t already know. So in this week’s Lowdown, we’re

Ronnie, Riverboats & Re-Election Campaigns

His father pitched for The New York Yankees before gaining his political chops in Bunkie, Louisiana, just like his son did. So who is it

SPONSORED: Celebrating 25 Years Of Burkenroad Reports

Twenty-five years ago, Professor Peter Ricchiuti founded a unique learning opportunity for Tulane University graduate students that has not

PRE-SINE DIE Q&A WITH SEN. BRET ALLAIN

LaPolitics: That final Finance vote in HB 1 was such a break from the session rhythm. Quick, unemotional and transactional. Was that

ALFORD: The Capitol’s Dirty Little Secret

The governor of Louisiana is not politically omnipotent. (I’m referring to the storied position of governor, not the man or the woman who

RABALAIS’ POLITICAL HISTORY: John Breaux’s Last-Minute Win Over Henson Moore

U.S. Sen. Russell B. Long’s announcement that he would retire after 36 years in the upper chamber was unexpected, as he had been building

PHOTO GALLERY: The Final Four Hours Of The Special Session That Never Was

   

“Members, It Is 12 a.m.”

It’s called a photo finish for a reason, not that the House, Senate and Edwards Administration would need photographic evidence to help sort

VIDEO: Who’s The Man Behind The Tree?

When politicians want your money, the idea is bound to come up. "Don't tax you. Don't tax me. Tax the man behind the tree." But who is

The LaPolitics Report: Meet Monty

This episode features Monty Sullivan, the president of the Louisiana Community and Technical College System, who provides a political read

LaPolitics Weekly Special Edition: FISCAL CLIFFHANGER

THE RUNDOWN Weekend action slated at Capitol… Sunday is budget-tax day on Senate floor… Sales tax amendments doomed… But the rate is still

LaPolitics Weekly: THEY SAID IT

“I didn't write the Constitution. I’m just trying to follow it.” —Appropriations Chair Cameron Henry, during HB 1 floor debate “I’m trying

Major Moves In SOS Race: Free announces, Werner out & JNK wades in

Like he did during last year’s special election for state treasurer, U.S. Sen. John Kennedy is picking sides again in the special election

FISCAL CLIFFHANGER: A Political Melodrama Told In Three Acts

FISCAL CLIFFHANGER A POLITICAL MELODRAMA TOLD IN THREE ACTS How a failed sales tax bill set the special session’s tone, bridged a deep

What The Heck Is John Alario Saying?

Have you ever listened closely to the words being said into the mic Senate President John Alario while he’s overseeing the business of the

SPONSORED: CGI Announces Major Louisiana Expansion

During his special session speech on May 22, Gov. John Bel Edwards, along with IT company CGI executive Dave Henderson, announced that CGI

#LA: John F. Jones & Social Media Advertising

“Social media is not magic. It’s just one of our many channels that we can use.” That’s the view of CenturyLink Public Policy and

JBE, Mitch & The Donald

This story was originally published in LaPolitics Weekly on May 18, 2018. Wish you had read it then? Become a part of our elite community by

SPONSORED: Congratulations to Bruce Greenstein and LHC Group!

Congratulations to Bruce Greenstein on this week’s announcement that he will return to Louisiana to lead innovation at LHC Group as Chief

THE LaPOLITICS REPORT: Picard, Politics & Ponies

In our latest podcast episode of The LaPolitics Report, Tyron Picard of The Picard Group drops in for a conversation about a bygone era in

CAPITOL GAINS: At Home with Clay

 “This is what America wants to see.” That was the promise from a beer-toting Congressman Clay Higgins in this episode of Capitol

SPONSORED: The 106th First Lady’s Luncheon

The Picard Group was honored to attend the 106th First Lady’s Luncheon, honoring The First Lady of the United States, Melania Trump. Held on